09-17-2024, 05:26 PM
Geminus, Eiria
In the primary brieifing room of the Chancellor's Manor, a flurry of advisors hovered energetically around the long oak table as Chancellor Stendē flipped through page after page of intelligence reports. After a brief period of silence, she looked up from the papers, less than amused. "Do you all actually have any idea what is going on in Milintica?"
Anders Sarano-Sulet, a younger civil servant who was currently serving as the Chief Officer of the Ministry of Diplomacy's Office of Caxcanan Affairs, spoke up first. "There are definitely blatant signs of interference, from a large variety of parties. Domestic interests, including both the MCP and MPP, seemed to have made every effort to sway the results, although only time will tell just how legal these efforts were."
Kaira Daukava, an analyst from the EICA's Office of Caxcanan Operations, jumped in swiftly. "Our agents have also noticed several instances of irregular activities leading up to the election, particularly on certain social media accounts. We suspect that those accounts may have been influenced or operated by Xiomeran agents attempting to change the course of the election."
The Chancellor's sour mood didn't quite improve. "You suspect? And just how much hard evidence does the EICA have to back up those suspicions?" After a moment of Daukava's silence, Stendē's brow furrowed. "We need to double our efforts in Milintica if we haven't already. Get more agents in position immediately, and let those already there know that they will work overtime for a while. We need to be doing everything we can to find out the truth behind these results. Short of risking the lives of our operatives, of course.
Minister of Diplomacy (And former LIDUN Secretary-General) Charles Danton cleared his throat, being one of the few advisors in the room to have the guts to do so. "If I could, Kurena, there is something else behind these results. It will take significant time to uncover solid evidence about what happened here. I do agree that we should put more agents in the field. In fact, we likely should have had more in Milintica in the first place." Although Danton's tone was polite and neutral, the words were like pointed spears towards Daukava and the EICA's Director, Oliver Karklins.
Stendē held up her hand, hoping to stop the subsequent inter-agency bickering before it started. "Regardless, we must move quickly. We will not have much time before the situation in Milintica heats up, and Angels help us if we are unprepared for it when it does."
The door across from the Chancellor swung open, revealing Stendē's ever-diligent Chief of Staff, who had temporarily stepped out of the meeting. He pointed to the corded phone on the table. "Chancellor, President Xiadani is calling for you." He nodded to the advisors, who all filed out quickly, leaving just Riekstins and the Chancellor in the room as the latter picked up the phone.
"Madam President, good morning. I am glad that you called. It would be nice to have someone to discuss the... elephant in Caxcana with."
"Indeed, and thank you for taking my call, madam Chancellor," Xiadani replied. "I hope you are doing well - or as well as can be, given the circumstances. The situation in Milintica has become very concerning to us, as I am sure it is to you. I felt it would be wise to discuss what our response may be to the situation."
"I am doing well, thank you for your kind words. I would love to formulate a plan of action. However, I am not sure just how much we can do right now, given the unclear circumstances around this election. We do have some intelligence regarding the election..." Stendē glanced back down at the papers on the table. "...But what we do have is largely devoid of specifics, I am sorry to report. What we can conclude is that the legitimacy of this election is sketchy at best, and even with our best efforts, we were denied any sort of ability to supervise the process. And given the current tension in the nation, I wouldn't be surprised if this current political limbo ends in public unrest- or worse."
"Our efforts to observe the election are being blocked as well. That only adds to my suspicions that there is something fraudulent about this election. But we sadly have as little to go on as you do at the moment." Xiadani looked at her own notes before continuing. "While we try to get to the bottom of this election, it might be wise to focus on the very real possibility that Neina Arana is going to be the next leader of Milintica. She has already threatened to withdraw Milintica from the UCS, and also wants nuclear weapons. This is a very dangerous scenario, both for Milintica and for us. We may need to begin considering ways to try to keep Milintica on our side under her leadership...or containing her and the Milinticans, if she decides otherwise."
The Chancellor grimaced. "Arana's foreign policy is the stuff of any rational democrat's nightmares. I agree, we need a plan to deal with whatever she may do while in office, however, I'm not sure how exactly we can keep her 'contained,' so to speak. From how I see it, her isolationist policies would put Milintica at odds with the world once again, and as such would diminish whatever influence she would have left, effectively containing her power within the borders of her nation. I, frankly, do not see how she can even suggest acquiring nuclear missiles from any nation when she frequently rebukes even her nation's staunchest allies. Does she plan to use Milintica's UCS membership as a bargaining chip or hostage to get whatever she wants?" The Eirian leader adjusted her glasses. "Frankly, I feel that the only way Arana could ever have an impact internationally would be by withdrawing from the UCS and/or starting a war." She sighed. "We must hope that the coalition government that forms is more reasonable than their head of state."
”There is little chance of that, unfortunately. Arana will be relying on even more extreme fringe parties in the Assembly to maintain power. Groups like the Paora Alliance and the Isolationists.” Xiadani shook her head at the thought. “The extremists have gained ascendancy in Milintica. And I would not be surprised if she does use UCS membership as leverage for her goals. On that subject, maybe we should see if we can dilute that threat a bit. Perhaps the Manabí can be convinced to revive their membership bid. That would give us at least something as a form of counter-leverage.”
"That would be sensible. And given the current regional climate, I doubt that it would take much to convince them to apply again." The Chancellor glanced over at the wall, a thought occurring to her. "Then again, we would still need Milintica's vote for their admittance if Arana does not choose to withdraw from the Union, or if we do not find a way to reduce or remove her power to do so." She sighed. "But there is no precedent for removing a UCS member, especially one who was an original signatory of the treaty. I hate how unpredictable this entire situation is, honestly. For the time being, this looks to bring nothing but chaos and conflict."
”That is unfortunately true. As far as Manabí Rive goes, though, we still have a month before Arana would assume power. If we can get them to reapply and fast track it, Matōchmizalo can still approve it now and get it passed before the new Assembly takes over. Once the Manabí are in, Arana will just have to cope with their membership because she won’t be able to do anything about it,” Xiadani said. “As far as the overall situation goes, you’re right. We may just have to put up guardrails to try to keep Arana from going too far insane. We definitely need to get other countries to back us on that.” Xiadani paused. “We also have to ensure that she does not provoke Xiomera into an excuse to take action against her. Her threat to gain nukes and her belligerence about the islands that Xiomera still occupies are undoubtedly seen as an opportunity by Tlālacuetztla.”
"Almost everything any of us do could be seen as provocation to the Xiomerans, so we have a difficult job there," Stendē joked without any note of humor in her voice. "As for the nuclear threat, I still don't see what Arana intends to accomplish there. Milintica's nuclear program was abandoned long ago, so it will take significant time to rebuild whatever progress they had, especially without help from foreign powers. However, I do agree that her posturing around the Chelnaco Islands is likely to start a conflict, one that we are caught in the crossfire of. But we really afford to intervene if it comes to a war? Our military is just recovering from the Aurian Civil War, not to mention the fact that domestic support for a new conflict involving Milintica would be abysmal." She and Riekstins exchanged a look. "We could blockade the islands if war broke out, however even that could throw us into a full conflict."
”Those are all valid points, and Huenya is also in no position to fight a prolonged war right now,” Xiadani agreed. “We may need to consider the possibility of intervening in Milintica if Arana seems about to start a war with the Xiomerans. We can’t let the Empire gain yet another foothold abroad.”
The Eirian leader was silent for a few moments. "I do agree that we may have no choice but to intervene. We are currently working now to get a better view into how exactly the election unfolded. In the meantime, we may want to begin preparations for political violence and unrest across the nation. It's not like the MPP is going to go away without a fight, and we can't have anything happening that would make Arana or her supporters look like martyrs." Stendē's eyes locked on the wall in front of her. "If I could ask, what did you have in mind for interference, Madam President?"
”We can’t do anything too overt unless absolutely necessary. That would be handing a propaganda victory to Calhualyana and not helping our cause. For now, we should probably call for both sides to allow for free and independent review of the election results by the international community. If either the MPP or MCP resist such calls, we’ll know who is likely to have rigged the results.” Xiadani paused. “If things really go bad and Arana does take power, we can’t let her hold the UCS hostage or possibly enable a Xiomeran occupation. If it appears such an outcome is imminent….Huenya is planning to stage a military intervention to depose Arana and ensure Xiomera cannot occupy Milintica.” Xiadani paused again, waiting for Stendē’s response.
The Chancellor's eyes darted back to her Chief of Staff. "I hope it does not have to come to that. Deposing what could be a democratically-elected government is not exactly ideal, even if it does safe the nation from a worse fate." The irony of the whole situation might've made her laugh under different circumstances. "If it looks like a Xiomeran invasion is imminent, our forces would intervene alongside yours. Until then, if Arana does stay in power, we must find ways to undermine her rule domestically. She does not exactly have a large mandate, so finding weaknesses will not be difficult. The problem will be exploiting said weaknesses without causing large-scale domestic strife in Milintica."
"Agreed...we will need to find ways to turn her own supporters against her as well if we are to have success with undermining her rule. That will be a tall order, since many of them share her ideal of returning Milintica to the days of one-party rule and hardcore communism." Xiadani thought for a moment. "What may work well in that regard is taking measures to ensure that Arana, and by extension Milintica, are isolated during her tenure. If people see Milintica's diplomatic and economic gains over the past few years being reversed, that may turn enough people against Arana."
"Of course. That will not even be difficult to do, given Arana's isolationist tendencies and disdain towards the very measures that have revived the Milintican economy. The real trick will be to convince her dogmatic followers that the blame is on their leader and not us. After all, that seems to be the main solution that Arana employs whenever Milintica encounters a problem: Blame her capitalist allies."
”She will doubtlessly fall on that trope again as well. We will have to do everything we can to get past her spin on the situation. Huenya has gained experience at that dealing with Xiomera. We shall have to do the same with Arana.”
"And that is where we can use Arana's shaky mandate to our advantage. Given how divided the country is, it may be best to diversify our means of delivering propaganda. It will be hard for her and her staff to deal with a media blitz on top of a contested election." Stendē said, hoping that her statement would prove true.
”We can certainly hope so, and to work to that effect. That is probably our best plan for now, along with continuing our investigations to determine if the election was valid.” Xiadani looked at another document. “Our election observers should be able to present their initial report soon.”
"While yours do that, our observers on the ground will attempt to futher investigate any forces that may have manipulated the final election result. Even if this election was called in Matōchmizalo's favor from the beginning, it would still smell of illegitimacy. I hope we can discover the truth behind these results before the situation becomes drastic."
"As do I, and quickly at that. Something tells me that President-Elect Arana will not hesitate to move quickly to consolidate her power." Xiadani's lips twitched as she said "Arana" as if she had just tasted something sour unexpectedly.
"Correct, however the outgoing administration will not make that easy for her. We have not yet seen just how chaotic this situation will get. This will not be pretty," the Eirian leader said, dreading the days ahead.
”True. Matōchmizalo does not seem inclined to just hand off power, and I can’t say I blame him. Whatever does happen, we will need to be prepared.” Xiadani looked at another note on her desk. “We should also consider the possibility of roping other nations into our discussions about how to handle Arana. Perhaps some contacts with nations like Haesan, Laeral or Greater Acadia. We could also talk to the Lauchenoirians but given their stance on communists, that could be more complicated.”
"Absolutely. Our existing intelligence sharing agreements with those nations with regards to Auria should hopefully give us some leverage to request that we all share our intelligence on Milintica as well. Plus, we have recently received a cable that was allegedly from the Haesanites about a possible new agreement for military cooperation. Although we still are verifying the authenticity and details of that offer, it could add yet another advantage for us." The Chancellor mulled a thought over. "I am not sure that we should include the Lauchenoirians yet. If they interfere with the situation on their own, we should reach out. For now, I fear that it would just cause more diplomatic incidents, which we really do not need right now."
”That is a very valid risk. The current Lauchenoirian leadership are no fans of Arana, to be sure, and the feeling appears to be mutual. I think we will do well as you have outlined.” Xiadani gave Stendē a pleasant smile. “Are there any other concerns you would like to discuss?”
"I don't think so, with what little information we have. Thank you very much for your constant wisdom and support, Madam President. You serve your country and Caxcana well." Stendē's tone sounded sincerely grateful, if not a touch stressed. "We will be in contact if we discover anything."
”Thank you very much,” Xiadani replied. “I greatly appreciate both your steadfast support and that of Eiria as well. We will get this all sorted out. Have a good day, madam Chancellor.”
The phone was placed on its receiver once again, leaving Stendē and her top aide in silence as they ruminated over the call and the future of Caxcanan democracy.
In the primary brieifing room of the Chancellor's Manor, a flurry of advisors hovered energetically around the long oak table as Chancellor Stendē flipped through page after page of intelligence reports. After a brief period of silence, she looked up from the papers, less than amused. "Do you all actually have any idea what is going on in Milintica?"
Anders Sarano-Sulet, a younger civil servant who was currently serving as the Chief Officer of the Ministry of Diplomacy's Office of Caxcanan Affairs, spoke up first. "There are definitely blatant signs of interference, from a large variety of parties. Domestic interests, including both the MCP and MPP, seemed to have made every effort to sway the results, although only time will tell just how legal these efforts were."
Kaira Daukava, an analyst from the EICA's Office of Caxcanan Operations, jumped in swiftly. "Our agents have also noticed several instances of irregular activities leading up to the election, particularly on certain social media accounts. We suspect that those accounts may have been influenced or operated by Xiomeran agents attempting to change the course of the election."
The Chancellor's sour mood didn't quite improve. "You suspect? And just how much hard evidence does the EICA have to back up those suspicions?" After a moment of Daukava's silence, Stendē's brow furrowed. "We need to double our efforts in Milintica if we haven't already. Get more agents in position immediately, and let those already there know that they will work overtime for a while. We need to be doing everything we can to find out the truth behind these results. Short of risking the lives of our operatives, of course.
Minister of Diplomacy (And former LIDUN Secretary-General) Charles Danton cleared his throat, being one of the few advisors in the room to have the guts to do so. "If I could, Kurena, there is something else behind these results. It will take significant time to uncover solid evidence about what happened here. I do agree that we should put more agents in the field. In fact, we likely should have had more in Milintica in the first place." Although Danton's tone was polite and neutral, the words were like pointed spears towards Daukava and the EICA's Director, Oliver Karklins.
Stendē held up her hand, hoping to stop the subsequent inter-agency bickering before it started. "Regardless, we must move quickly. We will not have much time before the situation in Milintica heats up, and Angels help us if we are unprepared for it when it does."
The door across from the Chancellor swung open, revealing Stendē's ever-diligent Chief of Staff, who had temporarily stepped out of the meeting. He pointed to the corded phone on the table. "Chancellor, President Xiadani is calling for you." He nodded to the advisors, who all filed out quickly, leaving just Riekstins and the Chancellor in the room as the latter picked up the phone.
"Madam President, good morning. I am glad that you called. It would be nice to have someone to discuss the... elephant in Caxcana with."
"Indeed, and thank you for taking my call, madam Chancellor," Xiadani replied. "I hope you are doing well - or as well as can be, given the circumstances. The situation in Milintica has become very concerning to us, as I am sure it is to you. I felt it would be wise to discuss what our response may be to the situation."
"I am doing well, thank you for your kind words. I would love to formulate a plan of action. However, I am not sure just how much we can do right now, given the unclear circumstances around this election. We do have some intelligence regarding the election..." Stendē glanced back down at the papers on the table. "...But what we do have is largely devoid of specifics, I am sorry to report. What we can conclude is that the legitimacy of this election is sketchy at best, and even with our best efforts, we were denied any sort of ability to supervise the process. And given the current tension in the nation, I wouldn't be surprised if this current political limbo ends in public unrest- or worse."
"Our efforts to observe the election are being blocked as well. That only adds to my suspicions that there is something fraudulent about this election. But we sadly have as little to go on as you do at the moment." Xiadani looked at her own notes before continuing. "While we try to get to the bottom of this election, it might be wise to focus on the very real possibility that Neina Arana is going to be the next leader of Milintica. She has already threatened to withdraw Milintica from the UCS, and also wants nuclear weapons. This is a very dangerous scenario, both for Milintica and for us. We may need to begin considering ways to try to keep Milintica on our side under her leadership...or containing her and the Milinticans, if she decides otherwise."
The Chancellor grimaced. "Arana's foreign policy is the stuff of any rational democrat's nightmares. I agree, we need a plan to deal with whatever she may do while in office, however, I'm not sure how exactly we can keep her 'contained,' so to speak. From how I see it, her isolationist policies would put Milintica at odds with the world once again, and as such would diminish whatever influence she would have left, effectively containing her power within the borders of her nation. I, frankly, do not see how she can even suggest acquiring nuclear missiles from any nation when she frequently rebukes even her nation's staunchest allies. Does she plan to use Milintica's UCS membership as a bargaining chip or hostage to get whatever she wants?" The Eirian leader adjusted her glasses. "Frankly, I feel that the only way Arana could ever have an impact internationally would be by withdrawing from the UCS and/or starting a war." She sighed. "We must hope that the coalition government that forms is more reasonable than their head of state."
”There is little chance of that, unfortunately. Arana will be relying on even more extreme fringe parties in the Assembly to maintain power. Groups like the Paora Alliance and the Isolationists.” Xiadani shook her head at the thought. “The extremists have gained ascendancy in Milintica. And I would not be surprised if she does use UCS membership as leverage for her goals. On that subject, maybe we should see if we can dilute that threat a bit. Perhaps the Manabí can be convinced to revive their membership bid. That would give us at least something as a form of counter-leverage.”
"That would be sensible. And given the current regional climate, I doubt that it would take much to convince them to apply again." The Chancellor glanced over at the wall, a thought occurring to her. "Then again, we would still need Milintica's vote for their admittance if Arana does not choose to withdraw from the Union, or if we do not find a way to reduce or remove her power to do so." She sighed. "But there is no precedent for removing a UCS member, especially one who was an original signatory of the treaty. I hate how unpredictable this entire situation is, honestly. For the time being, this looks to bring nothing but chaos and conflict."
”That is unfortunately true. As far as Manabí Rive goes, though, we still have a month before Arana would assume power. If we can get them to reapply and fast track it, Matōchmizalo can still approve it now and get it passed before the new Assembly takes over. Once the Manabí are in, Arana will just have to cope with their membership because she won’t be able to do anything about it,” Xiadani said. “As far as the overall situation goes, you’re right. We may just have to put up guardrails to try to keep Arana from going too far insane. We definitely need to get other countries to back us on that.” Xiadani paused. “We also have to ensure that she does not provoke Xiomera into an excuse to take action against her. Her threat to gain nukes and her belligerence about the islands that Xiomera still occupies are undoubtedly seen as an opportunity by Tlālacuetztla.”
"Almost everything any of us do could be seen as provocation to the Xiomerans, so we have a difficult job there," Stendē joked without any note of humor in her voice. "As for the nuclear threat, I still don't see what Arana intends to accomplish there. Milintica's nuclear program was abandoned long ago, so it will take significant time to rebuild whatever progress they had, especially without help from foreign powers. However, I do agree that her posturing around the Chelnaco Islands is likely to start a conflict, one that we are caught in the crossfire of. But we really afford to intervene if it comes to a war? Our military is just recovering from the Aurian Civil War, not to mention the fact that domestic support for a new conflict involving Milintica would be abysmal." She and Riekstins exchanged a look. "We could blockade the islands if war broke out, however even that could throw us into a full conflict."
”Those are all valid points, and Huenya is also in no position to fight a prolonged war right now,” Xiadani agreed. “We may need to consider the possibility of intervening in Milintica if Arana seems about to start a war with the Xiomerans. We can’t let the Empire gain yet another foothold abroad.”
The Eirian leader was silent for a few moments. "I do agree that we may have no choice but to intervene. We are currently working now to get a better view into how exactly the election unfolded. In the meantime, we may want to begin preparations for political violence and unrest across the nation. It's not like the MPP is going to go away without a fight, and we can't have anything happening that would make Arana or her supporters look like martyrs." Stendē's eyes locked on the wall in front of her. "If I could ask, what did you have in mind for interference, Madam President?"
”We can’t do anything too overt unless absolutely necessary. That would be handing a propaganda victory to Calhualyana and not helping our cause. For now, we should probably call for both sides to allow for free and independent review of the election results by the international community. If either the MPP or MCP resist such calls, we’ll know who is likely to have rigged the results.” Xiadani paused. “If things really go bad and Arana does take power, we can’t let her hold the UCS hostage or possibly enable a Xiomeran occupation. If it appears such an outcome is imminent….Huenya is planning to stage a military intervention to depose Arana and ensure Xiomera cannot occupy Milintica.” Xiadani paused again, waiting for Stendē’s response.
The Chancellor's eyes darted back to her Chief of Staff. "I hope it does not have to come to that. Deposing what could be a democratically-elected government is not exactly ideal, even if it does safe the nation from a worse fate." The irony of the whole situation might've made her laugh under different circumstances. "If it looks like a Xiomeran invasion is imminent, our forces would intervene alongside yours. Until then, if Arana does stay in power, we must find ways to undermine her rule domestically. She does not exactly have a large mandate, so finding weaknesses will not be difficult. The problem will be exploiting said weaknesses without causing large-scale domestic strife in Milintica."
"Agreed...we will need to find ways to turn her own supporters against her as well if we are to have success with undermining her rule. That will be a tall order, since many of them share her ideal of returning Milintica to the days of one-party rule and hardcore communism." Xiadani thought for a moment. "What may work well in that regard is taking measures to ensure that Arana, and by extension Milintica, are isolated during her tenure. If people see Milintica's diplomatic and economic gains over the past few years being reversed, that may turn enough people against Arana."
"Of course. That will not even be difficult to do, given Arana's isolationist tendencies and disdain towards the very measures that have revived the Milintican economy. The real trick will be to convince her dogmatic followers that the blame is on their leader and not us. After all, that seems to be the main solution that Arana employs whenever Milintica encounters a problem: Blame her capitalist allies."
”She will doubtlessly fall on that trope again as well. We will have to do everything we can to get past her spin on the situation. Huenya has gained experience at that dealing with Xiomera. We shall have to do the same with Arana.”
"And that is where we can use Arana's shaky mandate to our advantage. Given how divided the country is, it may be best to diversify our means of delivering propaganda. It will be hard for her and her staff to deal with a media blitz on top of a contested election." Stendē said, hoping that her statement would prove true.
”We can certainly hope so, and to work to that effect. That is probably our best plan for now, along with continuing our investigations to determine if the election was valid.” Xiadani looked at another document. “Our election observers should be able to present their initial report soon.”
"While yours do that, our observers on the ground will attempt to futher investigate any forces that may have manipulated the final election result. Even if this election was called in Matōchmizalo's favor from the beginning, it would still smell of illegitimacy. I hope we can discover the truth behind these results before the situation becomes drastic."
"As do I, and quickly at that. Something tells me that President-Elect Arana will not hesitate to move quickly to consolidate her power." Xiadani's lips twitched as she said "Arana" as if she had just tasted something sour unexpectedly.
"Correct, however the outgoing administration will not make that easy for her. We have not yet seen just how chaotic this situation will get. This will not be pretty," the Eirian leader said, dreading the days ahead.
”True. Matōchmizalo does not seem inclined to just hand off power, and I can’t say I blame him. Whatever does happen, we will need to be prepared.” Xiadani looked at another note on her desk. “We should also consider the possibility of roping other nations into our discussions about how to handle Arana. Perhaps some contacts with nations like Haesan, Laeral or Greater Acadia. We could also talk to the Lauchenoirians but given their stance on communists, that could be more complicated.”
"Absolutely. Our existing intelligence sharing agreements with those nations with regards to Auria should hopefully give us some leverage to request that we all share our intelligence on Milintica as well. Plus, we have recently received a cable that was allegedly from the Haesanites about a possible new agreement for military cooperation. Although we still are verifying the authenticity and details of that offer, it could add yet another advantage for us." The Chancellor mulled a thought over. "I am not sure that we should include the Lauchenoirians yet. If they interfere with the situation on their own, we should reach out. For now, I fear that it would just cause more diplomatic incidents, which we really do not need right now."
”That is a very valid risk. The current Lauchenoirian leadership are no fans of Arana, to be sure, and the feeling appears to be mutual. I think we will do well as you have outlined.” Xiadani gave Stendē a pleasant smile. “Are there any other concerns you would like to discuss?”
"I don't think so, with what little information we have. Thank you very much for your constant wisdom and support, Madam President. You serve your country and Caxcana well." Stendē's tone sounded sincerely grateful, if not a touch stressed. "We will be in contact if we discover anything."
”Thank you very much,” Xiadani replied. “I greatly appreciate both your steadfast support and that of Eiria as well. We will get this all sorted out. Have a good day, madam Chancellor.”
The phone was placed on its receiver once again, leaving Stendē and her top aide in silence as they ruminated over the call and the future of Caxcanan democracy.
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