[Lauchenoiria]

Lauchenoirian Guardian

Liberals in coalition talks with various parties – Greens and Conservatives compete for place in government
22nd June 2019

Various parties have been in coalition talks with the Liberal Party about forming a coalition, after the Liberals came top in the parliamentary elections. The elections on the 16th June left no party – or, indeed, no two parties – able to form a government alone. It is all but certain that the next Prime Minister of Lauchenoiria will be Liberal leader Josephine Alvarez, but the form the new government will take is uncertain.

Conservative Party leader Thomas Averforth and Green Party leader Lucie Scott, have both been seen meeting with Alvarez every day since the election. No coalition can form without the support of one (or both) of these parties. Scott has said it is ‘unlikely’ the Greens would work with the Conservatives, but has not ruled it out completely. If the three largest parties were to work together, they would have 72/120 seats, a workable majority.

The leaders of the Lauchenoirian Democratic Alliance (LDA), Pacifist Party and the Left Alliance have also all been seen meeting with Alvarez. Lauchenoiria First and the Anarchist Party of Yervia have ruled out participating in any coalition – although all other parties had ruled out working with Lauchenoiria First themselves. The Left Alliance has ruled out working with the Conservatives, and vice-versa.

Considering the meetings taking place, there are four potential coalitions: A Liberal-Conservative-Green coalition combining the largest three parties and leaving the Communists as the official opposition; a Liberal-Conservative-LDA-Pacifist coalition with 62 seats, a Liberal-Green-LDA-Pacifist coalition with 61 seats, or a Liberal-Green-Left Alliance coalition with 63.

A coalition comprised of the largest three parties would be unexpected, and it is uncertain what agreements would be required to make this work. The Conservatives aim to represent business interests, while the Greens have often been opposed to many of the activities of businesses, asking for greater regulations and higher taxes to protect the environment. For such a coalition to work, it is likely both parties would have to compromise greatly – something it is unlikely they will be willing to do.

A coalition comprised of the Liberals, Conservatives, LDA and Pacifists would be the most right-wing government in Lauchenoiria since the 1940s. After decades of communist dictatorship, and years more of left-wing rule, few alive in Lauchenoiria today have seen a government on the right of the political spectrum. Business interests in Lauchenoiria are very excited at the prospect of this government – except, of course, the arms manufacturing industry. The Pacifists have publicly stated that their only two conditions for entering into a coalition are cuts to military spending and greater regulation of the arms industry.

Exchanging the Conservatives for the Green Party in the above combination cause a drastic shift in the priorities of the government. Businesses would not be as friendly to such a coalition – the Greens demand greater environmental regulations, and insist that any government they are part of sets a target of net-zero carbon emissions by 2025. This has been a key demand of environmental activists, however would likely damage the Lauchenoirian economy even further at a time when it is especially weak.

Anti-communist groups fear the prospect of a Liberal-Green-Left Alliance coalition, which is the least likely option of the bunch. The economics of the Liberal Party and the Left Alliance are very incompatible, and it seems unlikely the two could ever reconcile to form a coalition. The meeting of Left Alliance leader Damian Andrés and Josephine Alvarez came as a shock, and it is still viewed unlikely that anything will come of it. Such a coalition would spell an end to any hope of a trade deal with Shuell – which has been hinted at by both Alvarez and Averforth as something Lauchenoiria is aiming for.

It is uncertain which coalition will eventually be formed, with some suggesting Alvarez is waiting to see the result of the second round of the presidential election, in which the Conservative and LDA candidates will fight it out in an unprecedented contest. This will be the first time since before the 1952 Communist revolution that the Prime Minister and President have been members of different political parties, and will require a new way of working.

After the formation of a coalition, the first priority of the new government will be to schedule a vote in parliament on the new Lauchenoirian constitution. It is a time of unprecedented change in Lauchenoiria, and whatever flavour the new government takes, it will bring forward a new era in Lauchenoirian politics.