[Lauchenoiria]

Lauchenoirian Guardian

Opinion polls predict huge losses for both Liberals and Communists
30th May 2019

A new opinion poll released today shows that the Liberal Party and the Communist Party, the two largest parties since 1993, are set to lose a large amount of their support and their seats in Parliament. This will come as a massive shock to Josephine Alvarez and Javier Flynn’s parties as the elections approach in several weeks’ time.

Vote share by party
Liberal Party: 22.3% (-11.8)
Communist Party: 14.7% (-16.2)
Green Party: 13.5% (-0.7)
Conservative Party: 13.3% (+4.0)
Left Alliance: 10.0% (+9.5)
Lauchenoiria First: 8.3% (+6.5)
Lauchenoirian Democratic Alliance: 7.2% (+7.2)
Pacifist Party: 3.3% (+3.3)
Feminist Party: 3.2% (+0.6)
Social Democratic Party: 3.1% (-2.7)
Anarchist Party of Yervia: 0.9% (+0.7)
Aelurian Independence Party (AIP): 0.1% (-0.1)

Predicted seats by party
Liberal Party: 26 (-16)
Communist Party: 18 (-19)
Green Party: 16 (-2)
Conservative Party: 15 (+5)
Left Alliance: 11 (+11)
Lauchenoiria First: 9 (+8)
Lauchenoirian Democratic Alliance: 8 (+8)
Pacifist Party: 5 (+5)
Feminist Party: 4 (+2)
Social Democratic Party: 4 (-2)
Anarchist Party of Yervia: 2 (+2)
Aelurian Independence Party (AIP): 2 (-2)

The fall in support for the main two parties is attributed by most to their role in last year’s civil war. The Communists were blamed for the coup attempt, and the Liberals for failing to prevent a war. Controversial Liberal former Prime Minister Laura Moore, blamed by many for starting the war, has been notably absent from the media, however this has failed to stall the party’s decline.

The poll also predicts a major increase for the Left Alliance, who are predicted to win 11 seats, despite being completely wiped out in the 2014 election. The Left Alliance have presented themselves during the campaign as an alternative to the Communist Party who remained neutral in the war, did not support Chaher’s coup, and are opposed to authoritarianism.

Two new parties, the Lauchenoirian Democratic Alliance (LDA), and the Pacifist Party, both of whom were created following the 2018 civil war, are also set to gain seats. The LDA have been described as a populist party of the centre. They support broadly similar policies to the Liberals, however consider themselves anti-establishment, unlike Alvarez’s party. The Pacifist Party’s main policy is to prevent another war by cutting military spending and ensuring positive relations with other nations.

The Aelurian Independence Party (AIP) will also be disappointed in this result – they’re set to lose half their seats after their remarkable performance in 2014 where they managed to win a record 74% of the vote on Aeluria following a series of policies by the central government which greatly damaged the island’s economy in the run-up to that election.

Meanwhile the Anarchist Party of Yervia is set to gain two seats, for the first time in history. The left-wing party have existed since the 1970s, however have failed to gain representation at a national level. The sudden rise in support is attributed to the anarchists’ involvement in Resistance-controlled Usera during the civil war.

With these figures, it appears unlikely that any single, or even any pair of political parties will manage to form a government. Given the number of parties unwilling to work with the Communists, these figures would make it impossible for them to be part of the government. All parties have also ruled out working with Lauchenoiria First.

Elections are due to take place on the 16th June.