[Lauchenoiria]

Liaville Times – Referendum Special

24th February 2019

New opinion poll shows a majority for independence

A new poll carried out for the Liaville Times has shown that (with undecided voters removed) 52% of Aelurian voters would now vote for independence. This in a large increase, of 7 percentage points, from our previous poll three days ago. This result comes after last night’s debate, and the endorsement of independence by the states of Shuell and Zamastan, and a pledge from Sanctaria’s Charlene Hendry to recognise an independent Aeluria if Yes wins the referendum.

First Minister Nazario Macías has welcomed this poll, saying: “This is proof that when voters listen to discussion around the issues of independence, they are more likely to support it. The people of Aeluria are waking up to the fact that as part of Lauchenoiria, we cannot ever reach our full potential. We need independence to make our own decisions, have our own voice on the international stage, and ensure the prosperity of the Aelurian people.”

Meanwhile, Ally Wallis is not confident that this means victory for Yes: “There is every chance this poll is an outlier. Every other poll has shown that most Aelurians want to remain part of Lauchenoiria, and I am confident that this is the option voters will choose at the ballot box. Independence would be a huge risk, and it’s one we don’t need to take.”

From now until the referendum, the Liaville Times will be conducting a daily opinion poll on the question of independence.

Issue Focus – Trade

As previously mentioned, Aeluria relies on imports for many things, including food and medicine. So, the question of international trade after independence is on the minds of many voters. The AIP promise that the level of imports from, and indeed exports to, mainland Lauchenoiria will remain the same if the island becomes independent. The No campaign say that this is uncertain.

As well as trade with mainland Lauchenoiria, the pro-independence camp says, an independent Aeluria would be able to trade on its own terms with other nations throughout the IDU. With the support for independence shown recently by Shuell and Zamastan, and during the war by Gnejs and Kivasek, all these nations are considered likely future trading partners for an independent Aeluria.

There is one major problem, say the opposition. All four of these nations are hardly geographically close to Aeluria, which makes trade more difficult and expensive, especially for goods such as food. Abandoning the island’s nearest neighbour in order to trade with nations in all the other corners of the world would be foolish, say the anti-independence campaign.

Supporters of independence are adamant that it would be an excellent opportunity for the island to develop better trading relationships with nations across the globe, and also to reduce the island’s reliance on Lauchenoiria. They say the blockade during the war has eroded trust in the mainland amongst Aelurians, and that the island can no longer rely on them, lest something similar happen again.

Opponents argue that Lauchenoiria has long-standing trade agreements with other nations, and as an independent country, Aeluria would have to negotiate all its own trade deals, which could take many years, and end up with the island having much worse deals than what it currently has as part of Lauchenoiria.

The question of trade is on the mind of many Aelurian voters as the referendum approaches. And most agree – the state of future trade deals could very easily make or break an independent Aeluria.